Latest Teabagger Favorite Is Fading

I'll admit it was a rather quixotic wish that Democrats had -- their fervent hope that Newt Gingrich might actually become the Republican presidential nominee. Newt had so much baggage and had made so many ridiculous off-the-wall comments that it would have been a lot of fun to have him as the opponent to the president in the general election. But the dream seems to be dying fast. Newt's candidacy seems to be fading as fast as it rose.

Newt has only been in the race lead since the fall of Herman Cain (whose sexual proclivities proved to be too much for the teabaggers). Since they really despise Romney, and a whole host of other candidates (Bachmann, Perry, Cain) have proven not to be up to the task, the teabagger base needed a new champion -- and Gingrich was available. But several things have converged to make it unlikely that Gingrich can survive much longer.

First is the inordinate number of skeletons he has in his closet. It didn't take his opponents long to begin dragging those skeletons out and parading them for the Republican voters. Now that Newt's closet is open with those skeletons running amok, it's getting harder and harder for him to appeal to the "values voters" the teabaggers claim to be.


Second, Newt's lack of money is also beginning to show. While several of his opponents have started to spend pretty big in Iowa (the first contest), Newt just can't match them. Here are the ad buys for this week in Iowa (with only two weeks to go):
Romney Super PAC...............$713,000
Perry campaign...............$456,000
Romney campaign...............$258,000
Perry Super PAC...............$186,000
Santorum Super PAC...............$100,000
Paul campaign...............$63,000
Gingrich campaign...............$21,000

The third thing that is detrimental to Gingrich's hopes in Iowa is his lack of an organization in the state. He has bragged about wanting to run a "different kind of campaign", and the result is that he probably has less of an organization in the state that any of the other candidates (with the possible exception of Huntsman, who is pinning his hopes on New Hampshire). Even Santorum has spent more time in Iowa than Gingrich and has built up a better organization.

The result of all this is that Gingrich's popularity has plummeted in Iowa -- falling about 13 points just in the last two weeks. The Public Policy Polling survey (taken December 16th to 18th of 597 likely Republican caucus voters in Iowa, with a 4 point margin of error) shows that Gingrich has fallen out of the lead in that state, and now is only in third place. Here are the numbers:

Ron Paul...............23%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Michele Bachmann...............10%
Rick Perry...............10%
Rick Santorum...............10%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Gary Johnson...............2%
Not sure...............7%

And it's not just Iowa where Gingrich's popularity is starting to suffer. The newest Gallup Poll (taken nationwide between December 13th and 18th of 1,177 Republican voters, with a 3 point margin of error) shows Gingrich is still in first place -- but just barely. And he has lost 11 points in just the last two weeks. Here are those nationwide numbers:

Newt Gingrich...............26%
Mitt Romney...............24%
Ron Paul...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............7%
Rick Perry...............7%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

It's pretty obvious that Gingrich's run at the top of the polls is quickly ending. What comes next? Paul will most likely win in Iowa since he has the best organization there, but it is unlikely he can win the nomination (although he has enough money to stay in the race for a while and most likely will tie up about 10% of the delegates). His foreign policy stands are just anathema to most Republicans -- both establishment and teabagger Republicans.

Will the teabaggers finally accept Romney? Maybe enough to get him the nomination. But his numerous flip-flops, his mormonism, and his very close ties to Wall Street will have many of them staying at home on election day if he is the nominee (and that could seriously hurt the party down-ballot).

Even though their dream Republican candidate (Newt Gingrich) looks like he now won't get the nomination, this election is still looking better and better for the Democrats.