Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Obama Inches Closer To The Nomination

The West Virginia primary is now over, and Clinton is celebrating a huge win. So what does this mean? Has this win suddenly put Clinton back in the race? Hardly.

The only thing tonight means is that Obama is now 7 or 8 delegates closer to the Democratic nomination. According to CNN, Obama now has 1881 delegates (1599 pledged delegates and 282 superdelegates). Clinton has 1713 delegates (1440 pledged delegates and 273 superdelegates).

That means Obama is now within 144 delegates of having the nomination. All he needs is 30% of the remaining uncommitted delegates. Clinton still needs at least 312 delegates.

There are no other states that will give Clinton the 67% she achieved in West Virginia (and even that wouldn't be enough). She may win Kentucky next week, but it will be a lot closer than that. And Oregon also votes next week, which is most probably going to be won by Obama.

As I said last week, this race is really over. While Clinton exits in a blaze of glory, it is time for Obama to turn his attention to John McCain -- and that is exactly what he started to do yesterday.


  1. Still, how embarrassing to lose by 2-1 when you are the self-proclaimed nominee. It's obvious the people who voted for Hillary are showing their lack of support for Obama now = lack of support in November. Obama needs to reach out to Hillary's supporters instead of waiting for them to reach out for him. What spin will he put on this huge loss? "I didn't even try?" "those voters are nuts! who needs 'em?" "I've lost every other swing state- why not West Virginia?" How will he make up the loss of the white vote? Carrying just the black vote won't cut it in November. I still hope Hillary carries on to Denver- what a great show that will be.

  2. Just because some racists in West Virginia won't vote for him doesn't mean he can't get white votes. What about Iowa? What about all the states he's won? He couldn't have won a single one of them without lots of white votes. Even here in Potter County, with only 6% African-American population, he won half the delegates.

  3. Good analysis, and on target both in your post and comment. Obama conceded WV well before yesterday. Some folks seem to think that the only people voting for Obama are Blacks, but that is not even close to true. It would be impossible for a candidate to only have the Black vote and win as much as he's won. There aren't enough Black folks to make that happen.

    And if this were the general election, I guarantee you Hillary margin would be 1:2 in West Virginia instead of the other way around.

  4. So the only voters for Hillary in West Virginia were racists? Wow. There must be a bunch of them.

  5. "if this were the general election,I guarantee you Hillary margin would be 1:2 in West Virginia instead of the other way around." ...and it will be the opposite if Obama is the nominee? Write that down and look at it again in November.


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